A method to compare costs at given error rates for proposed sequencing technologies
Human diploid genome goal  = $1K/6e6 kb @ error<1e-8  =  1.7E-4  $/kb
(exact size of gaps as yet unspecified but expected similar to current)  
Coverage SBL Err SBL $/kb SBL2 $/kb ABI Err ABI $/kb 454 Err  454 $/kb
1 3E-3 0.09 1.2E-4 3E-4 0.90 4E-2 0.19
6.5 3E-7 0.59 7.8E-4
10 1E-6 9.00
40 4E-5 7.68
SBL-estimated ABI-estimated 454-estimated
Errors Coverage SBL $/kb SBL2 $/kb Coverage ABI $/kb Coverage 454 $/kb
1E-2 9 1.7
1E-3 1.7 0.15 2.0E-4 22 4.2
1E-4 3.0 0.27 3.6E-4 2.7 2.5 35 6.7
1E-5 4.4 0.40 5.3E-4 6.4 5.7 48 9.2
1E-6 5.8 0.52 6.9E-4 10.0 9.0 61 11.7
1E-7 7.2 0.64 8.6E-4 13.6 12.3 74 14.2
1E-8 8.5 0.77 1.0E-3 17.3 15.5 87 16.7
SBL cost and error rates from Shendure et al Science 2005
ABI cost and error estimates from Broad Inst. &  Agencourt 
454 cost estimate:  26.7 Mbp/($5K reagents+$500K/(3*365*4)  3yr_equip amortization 4 runs/day)
454 error rates from Table 2 of Margulies et al Nature 2005
Estimated required coverage = c1+(c1-c2)*[log(e)-log(e1)] / [log(e1)-log(e2)]
The above formula is inapplicable once the error rate plateaus into "systematic" (non-random) errors
SBL2 scenario: as SBL except 4 CCD pixel per bp on each cycle instead of current 750,
 plus lower fractional cost of library for human, simple savings on reagents, and dual flow cell.
Errors SBL $/kb ABI $/kb 454 $/kb
1.E-02 1.7
1.E-03 0.2 4.2
1.E-04 0.3 2.4 6.7
1.E-05 0.4 5.6 9.2
1.E-06 0.6 8.9 11.7
1.E-07 0.7 12.1 14.2
1.E-08 0.9 15.3 16.7